Close

Login Name: *
Password: *
Forgot Login Name or Password

Track Record

Company Highlights Date Forecasting Track Record

1989-1991

 

From 1989-1991, StatWeather founder Ria Persad discovers new methods of solving Partial Differential Equations, and MIT awards her a supercomputing fellowship at Lawrence Livermore National Lab using a new generation of CRAY technology applied to climate modeling. These cutting-edge models would later form the basis of the CCM climate models now in use by the international community of the IPCC and would foreshadow the founding of StatWeather.

June 1991  

Winter 1991

 


Microsoft Excel is initiated as the hot new analysis tool on Wall Street. Persad is employed to program predictive spreadsheets for stock prices at Lehman Brothers and the American Stock Exchange while a student at Princeton University.

Dec 1991  

Spring 1993

 

Parallel Computing in Weather
CRAY Research offers its first massively parallel processing system, and Persad returns to Lawrence Livermore National Lab to engage in climate modeling using advances in parallel and distributed computing, which would later provide the paradigm for StatWeather.

Jan
1993
 

1993


Scientific Achievement Award
Persad receives citations from U.S. Secretary of Energy Hazel O'Leary and Senator Edward Kennedy for Scientific Achievement.

May
1993

1993

 

Warm Trend Detection
Climate models at Lawrence Livermore National Lab predict nearly 20 years in advance a warming trend culminating in the year 2010 being the warmest year on record for global temperatures and 2012 being the warmest year on record for the Continental U.S. The model verifies 20 years later with piercing accuracy and far-reaching implications.

1994-1995

 

Research Published at Cambridge
Professors at Cambridge University publish seminal research on dynamical systems and chaos theory, providing a new, breakthrough framework for Persad's weather model development. Cambridge Professor G. I. Barenblatt would later serve on the advisory committee of StatWeather.

1994 to 1995  

1996-2000

 

Utilization in Aerospace & Energy
Persad develops for NASA an analytical model predicting chaos in non-Hamiltonian systems and later builds statistical models for long-range weather prediction at Bell Geospace, Enron, and Duke Energy.

1996 to Now

1997-Present

 

Unprecedented Accuracy
FACT: Since 1997, none of Persad's U.S. season-ahead forecasts have ever gone "bust". Eighteen years later, the legacy of reliably accurate seasonal forecasting continues to this day with StatWeather.

2001-2006

 


Persad Develops ClimeCast

Persad develops ClimeCastTM,the first purely statistical, post 5-day weather model on the market. Broadcast and government scientists pilot ClimeCast.

2001 to 2006

2001-2006




ClimeCast Outperforms Existing Models

ClimeCast's accuracy consistently out-performs government weather models 6-15 days in advance and the Pentagon explores its utilization in defense applications.

2006-2008

 

Artificial Intelligence
Persad prototypes a second-generation model using artificial intelligence, at that time a little-known technology among the weather forecasting community. Persad becomes a consultant for Goldman Sachs.

2006 to 2009

Jan 2009



Funding StatWeather
Using StatWeather algorithms, Persad invests in commodities using her own savings. Through a series of well-timed transactions, money is raised to bootstrap StatWeather until it becomes a profitable company 18 months after the first product release. "If I can multiply my money using these algorithms, others will be able to profit as well", says Persad.

2009-2011

 


Bayesian Breakthrough

A bleeding-edge third-generation model is created using Bayesian neural networks that renders a daily forecast up to 90 days in advance and a weekly forecast up to 1 year in advance.

2009 to 2011

2011

 


Accuracy Validation

Back-testing is performed to validate forecast accuracy and marketability, and StatWeather's 16-90 day ahead model consistently out-performs 10-15 day ahead government forecasts for a random sample of 10 U.S. cities.

2011

 


Industry Acknowledges Model Accuracy

Risk.net and Waters Technology's "Trading on Mother Nature" later document StatWeather's forecasting success for Winter 2011-2012. StatWeather's full product suite is showcased at the Energy Risk Summit in Houston, TX, and is extremely well received among risk managers.

2011 to 2012

Winter 2011




StatWeather Noted by Platts

In September, StatWeather accurately forecasts a mild Winter throughout the U.S., contrary to over 90% of publicly recognized forecasters in the U.S. Platts would label StatWeather "the contrarians" of the weather world.

Summer 2012

 


Accuracy Proven in Investment & Energy

One of the world's largest hedge funds conducts an independent analysis of StatWeather's data, validating a 10-year backtest. StatWeather's customer base burgeons into investment banking, energy trading, and asset management.

2012

Summer 2012

 


Heat Waves Forecasted

StatWeather precisely forecasts one of the hottest Summers on record at least 2 months ahead and forecasts 75% of heat waves at least 60 days ahead to within a 3-day occurrence window.

 

Fall 2012

 


Early Prediction Signals

At least 30 days ahead, StatWeather accurately signals a Nor'easter for November 7-8 and picks up on Hurricane Sandy signals 18 days prior to American GFS model. Customers track the success of the forecasts in near disbelief.

Winter 2012 to 2013

Winter 2012-2013

 


StatWeather's Winter Prediction Holds

StatWeather accurately forecasts an overall milder Winter as early as October, going against the grain of the consensus of market forecasts.

 

Winter 2013

 


StatWeather Winter Precision

StatWeather correctly forecasts 70% of all cold snaps to within a 3-day window at least 30 days in advance, accurately targeting the most major cold event of the season to the exact day.

2013

 


StatWeather is Ranked
as Top Weather Vendor

In an independent poll of the energy sector conducted by Energy Risk, StatWeather is voted the #1 weather vendor in North America and #2 globally, out-ranking its competitors by at least 2:1.

2013

February 2013

 



Drought Prediction Accurate

StatWeather publicly issues a 1-year ahead drought forecast to Agriculture.com which accurately comes to pass throughout 2013 for 80% of the United States.

Spring 2013

February 2013

 



Extreme Cold Prediction

In early February of 2013, StatWeather is the only publicly recognized weather vendor to predict the extreme cold weather to come in March. Competitors finally catch on to the pattern about 2-3 weeks later.

May 2013

 



Energy Risk Award Winner

StatWeather is awarded the nation's "Best Newcomer of the Year" by a panel of commodity experts for the criteria of accuracy, strategy, product execution, innovation to weather risk management, and client feedback.

Spring 2013

March 2013

 



Early Cold Prediction

The forecasting community completely misses the cold Spring 2013 until it's too late. StatWeather is right on target, warning customers since the Winter before.

  May 2013

May 2013

 



Cool East Warm West

StatWeather accurately forecasts a cooler East and warmer West; NOAA and most publicly recognized vendors completely miss the trend East of the Rockies.

Summer 2013

 



"Truly Amazing Prediction
"
According to a global leader in gases, “StatWeather predicted every heat wave during the Summer of 2013 in ERCOT at least 30 days in advance, many times to the exact day or at least by +/-1 day. It was truly amazing. We wish we had subscribed sooner."

Summer 2013

Summer 2013

 



Early Heat Wave Prediction

StatWeather calls every major heat wave in the Continental United States to within +/- 1 day of occurrence at least 30 days in advance during June, July, and August 2013. Government models catch these events at most 10 days in advance.

June 2013

 


Publications on Accuracy

Energy Risk Magazine publishes in its June 2013 issue, "Over an 18-month period ending at the beginning of May, the accuracy of StatWeather's monthly and seasonal weather predictions stood at 74%. That contrasts with just 30–40% accuracy for most mainstream forecasts."

June 2013

June 2013

 


Calm Prediction Verified

StatWeather announces its 2013 Hurricane Forecast at the LDC Gas Forum, calling for a below normal (calm) season. 90% of weather forecasters call for just the opposite. StatWeather's forecast is the one that verifies.

June 2013

 


Forbes Reports on StatWeather's
Moneyball-style Strategy

Forbes writes in two separate articles that "StatWeather has managed to double the accuracy of weather forecasts--what conventional methods achieve." StatWeather is likened to Nate Silver and Moneyball-style sabermetrics.

Jul to Aug 2013

August 2013

 

 

Highly Accurate Agriculture Prediction
StatWeather publicly issues a 10-Month ahead Agricultural forecast at a Commodities Conference which accurately comes to pass for 88% of the U.S.

  Fall 2013

Fall 2013

 

 

AI-Based Model Growing Smarter
StatWeather calls every significant cold episode during Fall of 2013 at least 60 days in advance. StatWeather's AI-based model is growing "smarter", increasing in accuracy with each season and year.

  Fall 2013

Fall 2013

 


StatWeather's Model Leads
European Model Significantly

StatWeather verifiably picks up on cold events, leading the European model (ECMWF) by weeks, if not months ahead for all U.S. regions except for Alaska.

Winter 2013

 


Benchmarking StatWeather

Thomson Reuters' Global Head of Weather, Stephen Mitchell, benchmarks StatWeather's forecasts to ascertain its 3rd party accuracy. His conclusion: "I have not seen any weather company forecast 90 days ahead as consistently accurate as StatWeather. This has been a terrific winter to embark such a study given the many extreme weather events in the US. Describing this accuracy to my colleagues who trade commodities is like trying to convince someone you saw Bigfoot! The forecast validation statistics are practically unfathomable and are immediately met with disbelief. If I had not seen it for myself (operationally), I too would be in disbelief."

Winter 2013-2014

Winter 2013 to
Spring 2014



Winter Cold Snaps Predicted

StatWeather predicts 85% of all cold snaps 60 days in advance to within 2 days of occurrence. The most notable cold event, the first week of January double cold snap, was forecasted 75 days ahead.

October 2013



Midwest Prediction
Comes to Pass

Energy Manager Today publishes StatWeather's early Winter outlook: "Midwest energy managers should prepare for a stormy winter. Chicago, Ohio, Detroit will be most susceptible to stormy, cold, volatile weather, during October continuing to run cool into December, with January being the height of storminess." This prediction comes to pass months later, exactly as told.

October 2013

October 2013



Polar Vortex Conditions Predicted

In October, StatWeather issues its official Winter forecast, calling for one of the coldest winters on record east of the Rockies with warmth in the West and Florida. Over 80% of weather vendors are calling for a seasonal to mild Winter, totally missing the polar vortex conditions. StatWeather's forecast accurately verifies.

December 2013



International Woman of the Year

StatWeather's founder, Ria Persad, is awarded "International Woman of the Year" in Power Engineering and Renewable Energy.

December 2013

December 2013






Winter Forecast Spot-on

StatWeather's December forecast dating back to September proves to be spot-on, with very little month-to-month change in the forecast.

January 2014

 

 

Thanks from Institutional Traders
StatWeather receives unsolicited thank-you notes from investment banks, energy companies, and hedge funds. One fund manager writes, "You've called the major cold events this season at least 60 days ahead to within a 2-day window. No other meteorologist has been able to do what StatWeather is doing."

Spring 2014

March 2014

 


StatWeather Winter Success

When most forecasters and government models are calling an end to the cold, StatWeather's 90 day ahead model shows sustained cold through March 2014. Those who bet against StatWeather lost.

March 2014

 

 

Big Wins for StatWeather Customers
Media articles are released naming some of the season's winners and losers in natural gas. A number of StatWeather customers are named among the "big winners", but no customer of StatWeather was named as a "loser." Some StatWeather customers made over 20%.

March 2014

May 2014

 

 

Google Startup Grind Features Persad
Google for Entrepreneurs selects Ria Persad in its #40Forward honorees to highlight and promote successful female founders.

May 2014  

June 2014

 

 

StatWeather Surprises in Forecasting Community
Reuters reports on old-school meteorology vs. StatWeather's data-driven "quant" approach, saying, "NOAA had predicted this past winter was going to be warmer than normal. Instead, it was unusually cold - just as StatWeather predicted. StatWeather nailed calls on a cold snap in late 2013 and a string of frigid temperatures through March, surprising some in the forecasting community."

Summer 2014

May 2014

 

 

StatWeather Has Double Accuracy
In May, StatWeather's June 2014 prediction calls for warmth east of the Rockies. ECMWF and competitor consensus calls for the opposite. StatWeather's forecast verifies with double the accuracy.